Voters are gearing up to head to the polls on Tuesday and participate in the most contentious political showdown of the year – the 2022 midterm elections. While several political insiders are divided over who will take control of the Senate and the House, others believe Republicans will take majority in both chambers.
Political insiders from both sides of the aisle provided Fox News Digital with their predictions ahead of Election Day as residents in states around the country, both Republican and Democrat, finalize their decisions on who they believe will best serve their interests in Congress.
The Senate remains a toss-up. Fox News’ Power Rankings show 47 seats going to the Democrats and 49 to the Republicans, leaving four crucial toss-up races to decide control of the Senate: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
The Fox News Power Rankings forecast expects Republicans to take control of the House with a 19–seat majority, or 236 total seats. That is a gain of 23 seats compared to the number they hold in Congress today.
Josh Kraushaar: Democrats have “fighting chance” to win some Senate races, but lose House majority
“Given the degree to which Democrats are playing defense in blue districts, it’s difficult to see how Democrats hold their narrow House majority.
“Democrats have a fighting chance to win some close Senate races, but Republicans hold favorable odds to win the one seat necessary to retake the majority. It would take a big Republican wave, however, to win more than two seats.”
Kraushaar is a Fox News contributor and a senior correspondent for Axios.
Chuck Rocha: “Headed to a runoff in Georgia and Louisiana”
“By Wednesday of next, I think we will be up one seat in the U.S. Senate (we win Pennsylvania). Everything stays the same, and headed to a run-off in Georgia and Louisiana. In the U.S. House, I think it’s a much different story. The House party committee and their Super PAC, along with their campaign, have not run a good midterm strategy. Of the 30 most vulnerable marginal Democratic seats, half of them have large Latino populations and NONE of these campaigns [have] a single Hispanic campaign manager, media consultant or messaging firm. I feel like we lose those seats. Because, again, the House committee was relying on woke white consultants to fix their Hispanic problem.”
“We Lose: TX-15 – 74% Hispanic, AZ-6 20%, FL-27 68%, CO-08 30%, TX-28 76%, NV-03 18%, NV-02 15%, OR-05 10% and so on…”
Rocha is a Democratic strategist and a former senior presidential campaign adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT.
Scott Rasmussen: Republicans take Senate, Democrats lose House majority
“Republicans [take] 53 Senate seats, GOP gains 30 seats in House. At least one surprising upset in Gov races.”
Rasmussen is a pollster and serves as president of RMG Research.
Emily Ekins: “There may be more of red wave this year than we think”
“The midterms look very different now than they did two weeks ago with Senate races tightening throughout the country and Republicans taking the lead. Eighty percent of Americans think we’re currently in a recession or will be in one within the next year. Economic pessimism – coupled with high inflation, high gas prices, and high interest rates – are hurting Democrats and handing an advantage to Republicans.”
“Based on polling models, I expect Republicans to take the House and now the Senate, but the seat margin may be small in the Senate. Polls in key Senate races show more Americans want Republicans to take control of the Senate than are voting for their state’s Republican senate candidate. This suggests Republicans are running weaker candidates in some key races. The overturning of Roe also has been helping Democrats, but doesn’t seem to have overcome voters’ concerns about inflation.”
“There’s a real possibility that polls are once again underestimating Republican support. There are some markers for non-response bias, in particular Democrats are more enthusiastic about taking surveys in some key states. So there may be more of red wave this year than we think.”
Ekins serves as vice president and director of polling for the Cato Institute.
Kevin Walling: Democrats are “going to have a good night”
“Despite some tough polling in recent days for Democratic candidates, I think Team Blue is actually going to have a good night, bucking historic midterm trends in a number of key races… I believe Lt. Governor [John] Fetterman will flip the Pennsylvania seat, along with Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio… Sen. [Mark] Kelly will hold his seat in Arizona, Sen. [Maggie] Hassan will secure another term representing New Hampshire and Sen. [Catherine] Cortez Masto will hang on in Nevada. It’s likely the case that the Georgia Senate will go to a runoff in December, and despite a great campaign run by Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, I think Sen. Ron Johnson will likely win a third term representing Wisconsin.”
“Democrats will hold onto the governor’s mansions in Pennsylvania, Kansas, Michigan, Maine, Nevada, New York, and Illinois and pick up both Maryland and Massachusetts, for the first time in eight years. I think we’ll likely come up short in Florida, Texas, and Georgia. Kevin McCarthy will finally realize his dream of becoming Speaker of the House picking up a dozen or so seats.”
Walling is a Democratic strategist and serves as vice president of HGCreative.
Tony Sayegh: Democrats will “pay a heavy political price” in midterms
“The year started out with hopes of a red wave. The summer brought fears of a red ripple though the start of the fall campaign season showed signs of strength for Republicans as voters re-focused on the economy, crime and immigration. It’s actually pretty simple – Republicans talked about issues voters cared about and Democrats talked about issues they cared about. And they will pay a heavy political price in the midterms for being so out of touch.”
“House Republicans could gain over 250 seats which would give Kevin McCarthy a very strong governing majority. Look for strategic Republican pick-ups in traditionally blue states like New York and California.”
“It’s more than likely Republicans will gain control of the Senate… Democrats are at severe risk in losing Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.”
“But perhaps the greatest indicator of what could possibly be a red tsunami is in some of the most fascinating governor races around the country. If Republicans score gubernatorial wins in New York, Michigan, Connecticut, or Oregon this would be a catastrophic rebuke of Democrats.”
Sayegh is a former Trump administration official and a Republican strategist.
Jonathan Kott: Democrats “could surprise a lot of people” in House elections
“Despite the historic trends, I think Dems will have a good night. The House will be tough, but moderate Democrats are running strong races and could surprise a lot of people. In the Senate, I still believe Tim Ryan, who has run the best race of any candidate this year, will win because he is the most authentic candidate in the race. The same can be said for John Fetterman, who, with Josh Shapiro’s help, [is] going to pull out a win. The other races are a toss-up.”
“The only thing I’m certain about is every Democrat is going to be eating peaches in Georgia in December.”
Kott is the former communications director for Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del.
William Doyle: Walker defeats Warnock in Georgia, Kemp fends off Abrams
“In the absence of CTCL’s funded Georgia GOTV effort, I predict that Herschel Walker will beat Raphael Warnock by AT LEAST 85,000 votes, or about 1.5 points. I do not believe the election will proceed to a runoff. Remember, Warnock would have almost certainly lost in the first round of his 2020 Nov. 3 Senate Election if Doug Collins did not split the Republican vote with Kelly Loeffler.”
“Of course, Kemp will easily beat Stacey Abrams by at least 8 points, and it is hard to imagine enough ticket splitters in GA to shift the race to Warnock.”
Doyle serves as the research director for Caesar Rodney Election Research Institute.
Democrats currently hold a razor-thin majority in the upper chamber with 50 seats in their party’s control. Because Vice President Kamala Harris has the ability to cast tie-breaking votes, Democrats only need 50 seats to retain power.
Whether the results of Tuesday’s midterm elections will serve as a referendum on President Biden and Democratic policies that were implemented over the past two years is yet to be determined.